Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 94001.536345 99102.487846 104198.730197 109668.869571 115370.616614 121135.063160 127399.861366
2025-07-20 86262.034533 94115.434402 102176.164182 111057.527942 120557.655471 130404.245037 141370.592579
2025-07-27 80416.893334 90160.905803 100377.566488 111866.754511 124404.806912 137649.945809 152677.434305
2025-08-03 75458.752562 86575.703178 98443.072455 112018.359108 127080.565071 143243.095702 161859.919429
2025-08-10 71559.601956 83780.513182 97032.671990 112418.227381 129734.446275 148565.980433 170537.654036
2025-08-17 68057.143649 81160.028236 95572.040130 112528.759464 131858.611884 153131.641860 178235.619203
2025-08-24 65731.940811 79700.180963 95261.754804 113790.637334 135153.935109 158913.599420 187233.897377
2025-08-31 62861.902181 77447.070022 93896.286537 113705.914098 136793.139148 162726.366904 193929.249123
2025-09-07 61188.557928 76486.819082 93932.811483 115159.105353 140137.429885 168444.732756 202789.838235
2025-09-14 59402.131909 75295.723217 93614.382133 116121.175095 142850.282862 173396.700585 210751.334425
2025-09-21 57311.440425 73645.055459 92667.654124 116262.593621 144534.127996 177105.819617 217239.850857
2025-09-28 55317.800894 72028.168179 91685.595879 116291.467078 146025.816287 180547.858090 223391.798623
2025-10-05 54302.515953 71585.232540 92107.033468 118013.669370 149567.081743 186462.482964 232555.463714
2025-10-12 53228.331423 71024.663843 92350.647095 119495.939154 152811.442759 192036.220307 241352.660244
2025-10-19 51915.600831 70112.593821 92117.547362 120356.754018 155276.336382 196668.196824 249034.831227
2025-10-26 50342.628270 68814.256397 91355.006711 120518.095428 156850.213743 200205.035089 255393.618986
2025-11-02 48987.206655 67744.803261 90835.036774 120942.593531 158719.289607 204085.132104 262171.561238
2025-11-09 47564.384660 66540.167175 90101.432593 121059.926208 160176.908259 207445.434763 268313.985031
2025-11-16 46774.829201 66129.210698 90350.490102 122399.100860 163150.906161 212672.519308 276770.828018
2025-11-23 45390.601677 64893.382408 89504.430838 122309.194519 164301.169995 215631.271446 282428.079978
2025-11-30 44785.780738 64667.305651 89942.100644 123851.207023 167512.075144 221158.988019 291299.915568
2025-12-07 43989.304268 64157.817299 89989.056818 124871.962632 170051.649298 225852.835858 299153.866086
2025-12-14 42865.901454 63174.106851 89385.689131 125021.999837 171457.942336 229116.485999 305222.888533